Odds-On: UFC 236 Betting Preview
We are back for the first event of the new year and the return of one of the sports biggest stars, Conor McGregor, with an average enough card from Las Vegas this week.
I’m Keen on a few underdogs this weekend so I will be playing it safe with some small units. Hopefully, we grab a few winners and start the year with a winning event.
Ode Osbourne v Brian Kelleher
Starting my bets early in the fight pass prelims. Kelleher is off the back of two very tough fights in Lineker and Montel Jackson. He got finished in both but not much shame in either as Lineker was a top 5 guy and Montel is on route to the top of the division.
In my opinion, Osbourne is a nice step down in competition for Kelleher. Osbourne is coming off a good win on DWTNCS and has good tools in his game.
He showed decent takedown defence and had some nasty kicks in his stand up. I do feel this is a test for Osbourne to see if he’s ready for this level of competition yet. I fancy Kelleher to be able to get inside Osbourne and possibly get the better of the grappling. I think his BJJ is somewhat underrated and at the odds available, I’m keen to have a small punt on him at the odds.
Its been over a year since the Jackson loss so I’m hoping that any “chin” issues have been resolved with time off after his two losses. (Jackson smashed him with an elbow on route to a sub win).
I’ll take a little of the evens (+100, $2.00) on Kelleher to win and might play Osbourne KO at 13/2 as a saver in case he does crack Kelleher jaw with a good shot. Either way, I think we have a good chance of cashing one of these bets.
Originally when I saw this fight announced I felt that there might be value on Skelly, but after watching some tape I have changed my mind and think it’s Dawson’s fight to lose. Dawson has a solid wrestling base and good hands if not sometimes a little reckless but he’s still young and plenty of time of mature.
The main difference I got here is the cardio, Skelly looks like he gases in fights while Dawson could go hard for five rounds. Also, I think he has better hands. I’m going to take Dawson to overwhelm Skelly and possibly get a finish in later rounds.
I’ll take him in multis for money line at 4/11 ($1.37, -275)
Also small play on inside the distance at 13/8 ( $2.63 +263)
Sodiq Yusuff v Andre Fili
Oh, man. This is a great sleeper fight.
Sodiq is one of the best prospects in the 145lb division at the moment. Speed, power and movement, he looks the package but he’s got a tough ask against gritty veteran in Andre Flli here.
Fili has looked excellent and in my opinion, he was robbed in that Michael Johnson fight. I think both of these guys are tough and although we’ve yet to see Sodiq’s chin get tested, I don’t think either are getting finished here.
I’m leaning Sodiq by Decision but I’m going to play that fight goes the distance at Evens (+100, $2).
Maycee Barber v Roxanne Modafferi
Just a quick one on this. Barber wins it but how is the question. Roxanne has not been finished by strikes since 2003. She’s a tough one.
I think the value in the markets is possibly Barber by submission at 6/1 ($7,+700) or a double chance of by sub/or by Decision 13/8 ($2.63 +263).
Not keen on tipping at KO at short odds, much rather play the value.
Diego Ferreira v Anthony Pettis
Think people sleeping a little on Pettis here. It will be a close fight but I think Ferreira is very short considering this is probably the biggest name he’s ever faced outside of Poirier. I think Pettis has an advantage on both the feet and the ground and wouldn’t be surprised if he got the stoppage.
I’m a big Ferriera fan but backing him at current odds has no appeal.
I’ll take some Anthony Pettis at 2/1 ($3 +300) as a live dog.
Alexei Oleynik v Maurice Greene
Quick bet on this one. In my opinion, Oleynik gets the submission in round one or he gasses hard and gets knocked out.
Quickplay for me on Oleynik round one submission at 4/1 ($5, +500) and Greene Knock out $2.10.
Conor McGregor v Donald Cerrone
Not overly keen on a bet on this as odds for McGregor KO are shocking low.
My thoughts on it is that everything Conor is good at is what Cowboy struggles against. I feel McGregor clips him with something early and gets a finish. Cowboy could find a route to victory with some wrestling and a submission but I’m confident he gets hurt with some McGregor boxing.
I’ll speck a Conor McGregor KO and Round 2 at 4/1 ($5 +500) as all six of cowboys TKO losses have come in round 1 or round 2.
6 Legs at 18/1 ($19, +1900)