Odds-On: UFC Norfolk Betting Preview
Welcome back folks. Disappointing end to last week’s betting preview with Dan Hooker beating our selection in a close fight. Unlucky not to cash those dog odds on Felder. De Lima got us some nice money with the knock out in round one cashing for us at $5.
This week we head to Norfolk, Virginia and as always, a couple of prices have caught my eye.
Felicia Spencer vs. Zarah Fairn dos Santos
A rare women’s featherweight fight to kick off my selections. Not going to go into too much detail here but Spencer has a solid chin as shown by taking everything Cyborg could throw at her for three rounds.
dos Santos can hold her own on feet too but its on the ground that this fight will be won. Felcia Spencer is streets ahead of dos Santos on the mat.
I can see this being one takedown and done here unless Spencer decides to throw hands for three rounds. I’m keen she takes this to the floor early and gets an easy submission. Quite happy with odds available too. Bit of MMA maths here too with Spencer subbing Anderson, who in turn subbed dos Santos last time out
Selection: Felcia Spencer Round One Submission $2.75, +175
Grant Dawson vs. Derrick Minner
Felt that Dawson turned a corner last time out subbing Trizano.
That was a good win and he looked a lot more composed than previous fights.
Minner coming in here on short notice and I’m not sure it’s a good match up for him.
From what tape I’ve seen he’s a ‘kill or be killed’ type of guy with a good opening few minutes and then a cardio dump. I’m confident Dawson withstands whatever Minneer can throw at him and grabs a submission victory late round one or early round two. Cardio, wrestling, BJJ think he is stronger than Minner everywhere.
Selection: Grant Dawson Submission $2, +100
Tom Breese vs. Brendan Allen
Can’t have Tom Breese here. Aside from any issues he’s been having, his layoff is too long and he’s not getting an easy assignment with Brendan Allen. Who is riding a five fight win streak. Breese’s last win was against Dan Kelly in 2018. For me it’s too long of a time off to take him here. I think Allen will have some size on him and although I’d say that Breese has better hands, I think that Allen can take him down, wear him out and get a finish.
Selection: Brendan Allen Money Line $2,+100
Brendan Allen Submission $4.50, +350
Gabriel Silva vs. Tyler Phillips
Silva looked great against Ray Borg before his gas tank ran out.
Easier fight here and I think he has the edge in endurance against Phillips.
I wasn’t impressed with Phillips on TUF and he wasn’t facing high level competition in LFA last time out.
Silva’s BJJ going to take control here for me and at odds available I’m happy to play him to win by submission. I think he withstands whatever Phillips has for round one. A takedown and transition into a submission for me.
Selection: Silva Submission $7.50, +650
Joseph Benavidez vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
I was super keen on Figueiredo money line here initially but seen as he missed weight I’m not going to have a play. It’s a tough fight to call as both are equally as good in all areas. I think that Figueiredo can crack that little bit harder. Only price that stood out to me was Figueiredo by submission.
At odds available it’s worth a small play. Can see Benavidez going for a takedown and Figueiredo possibly snatching that neck. Only a spec play as odds generous.
Selection: Figueiredo Submission $13,+1200