Odds-on: UFC Rio Rancho Betting preview
We are back after a successful UFC 247. Judges cost us a clean sweep on that card but onwards and upwards we go to this card at Rio Rancho, New Mexico.
Not the greatest of fight nights in my opinion, but one fights stand out to me as profitable and I’m keen on one dog at current odds.
John Dodson vs. Nathaniel Wood
Striaght away, without looking too deep at this I’m keen on Wood.
Dodson appears to be closing in on the end of his time in the UFC after some inept performances against Yan and Rivera. His last win was a good win against Pedro Munhoz, he showed some good movement and striking in the first round. Munhoz got more respect as he started to find the rhythm in later rounds though. I scored that fight to Munhoz but he needed to bring more wrestling into it for me. Standing and trading is the fight Dodson wants and needs if he’s to win. Obviously standing and trading with Yan, Moraes, Lineker or Rivera doesn’t seem the best game plan but that is Dodson’s best route to victory.
Enter Nathaniel Wood. “The Prospect” is a former Cage Warriors champion, who has taken to the UFC very well. While Dodson is the highest level he’s faces so far, he’s breezed through his last three with three submission wins. I’m confident that Wood has the hands to stand with Dodson if needs be. He has shown that he can take a punch (go watch that Josh Reed Cage Warriors fight) and has taken care of a decent level striker in Andre Ewell in his UFC stint.
The main difference I see here is Wood’s ability to wrestle and grapple. I think he will be the stronger of the two and has the youth advantage. He also holds a significant advantage on the ground. I think Dodson is durable enough to withstand the onslaught if it hits the floor but can see Wood winning rounds with takedowns, controlling the fight on the ground and hitting the bigger shots on the feet.
Very happy with the $1.67, -149 available to make him a play.
Selection: Nathaniel Wood ML
Diego Sanchez v Michel Pereira
Very surprised to see Michel Periera as a favourite here.
He was nothing short of awful last time out against Tristan Connolly. From missing the 170lb limit to nearly blowing all his gas tank in the walk to the ring, he showed a lot of holes in his game. Especially once taken to the ground. The game plan to beat him has been layered out, let him back flip and axe kick in the first few minutes as the gas tank isn’t able to keep it going for longer than a couple of minutes. He’s all ready said he’s not going to change his style so expect more back flips and rolling thunders.
He did look good knocking out Danny Roberts but Roberts didn’t do himself any favours in that fight for me. He walked into that trouble.
Diego Sanchez is a legend of the sport. Coming from TUF 1 he needs no introduction.
He’s coming off a decision loss to Chiesa but in context that doesn’t seem a bad result seen how good Chiesa has looked at 170. What I liked about the first round of that fight is that Diego took Chiesa down straight away in the first round. I feel if he can implement the same game plan here and take away the explosive start from Pereira game he can keep him down and ground out a win.
We saw him do it against Mickey Gall. He utilised his wrestling advantage and got the finish.
The main issue I have is that Diego can sometimes go into a striking battle which I’m not sure he comes out the better of the two.
I’m counting on a Diego Sancez wrestling clinic and at the $2.25, +125 odds available I think he’s worth a bet as an underdog to implement a good game plan and won the decision.
Selection: Diego Sanchez ML
Just the two selections this weekend as not going to push through if I don’t feel any value. The main event could end up being an awful fight with possible value in the over rounds markets but nothing available at time of writing.