UFC 232 Betting Preview
UFC 232 Jones v Gustafsson
I’m keen on a few at + odds this weekend so let’s try to break this card down and win some money.
All odds are from various different bookmakers.
Brian “Boom” Kelleher v Montel “Quik” Jackson
First up, I’m a big Kelleher fan since his time on regional scene.
He showed good heart in the loss against Lineker and proved yet again that he has a solid chin. He had his moments in that fight but just couldn’t get the takedowns.
Ricky Simon, who beat Jackson last time out, had Jackson on the floor for quite a bit of his fight.
He had Jackson’s back in round two and nearly got a rear naked choke in round three. For me, if Kelleher gets in that position it’s over. 8 of his 19 pro wins are from submissions.
Jackson’s keys to victory are through his hands. He has good striking and hits hard but Kelleher showed in the last fight that he has a chin. He could potentially piece up Kelleher but I’m hoping he can win rounds with takedowns and finish it with a submission.
My other worry for Jackson is his record. Wins against 1-3, 22-36, 3-4, 1-3, 4-1 and 9-2 on his DWTNCS fight. He has been beating below par guys until his last two fights. I think Kelleher is a big step up compared to the level he’s been facing before.
Selection: Brian Kelleher at 2.3
Fight Does Not Go Distance at 2.25 looks a decent punt too especially if you think Montel can knock Kelleher out.
Ryan “The Wizard” Hall v BJ “The Prodigy” Penn
I don’t like betting against a legend like BJ Penn but I feel like this one could be profitable.
Penn could potentially gas hard after few minutes here and Hall could have his way with him. The only problem is Hall would have no problem just hanging onto Penn’s back or leg for three rounds while attempting submissions.
I’m going to take a chance here with Hall inside the distance here. People can talk up BJ’s BJJ but I feel he may gas out here and Hall could potentially catch him with something. I find it hard to put money on Penn here since his last win was in 2010. He had his moments early against Siver but he was on borrowed time in the third and I think the younger Ryan Hall can finish him.
Selection: Ryan Hall inside the distance at 2.87
Hall by Submission 4.2 is probably his most likely route to victory.
Curtis “Curtious” Millender v Siyar “The Great” Bahadurzada
This is a good, underrated, fight. Siyar has looked good in his last two fights back, especially the Chagas fight, after being in trouble for large parts of the first round. Millender is riding an eight-fight win streak which includes wins over Max Griffin and Middleweight newcomer Kevin Holland. He also won in violent fashion against Thiago Alves in Texas earlier this year.
I was keen on Millender earlier in the week and still am but he’s a short betting prospect at 1.66. I think that the fight won’t go the distance and at 1.80, this is a better bet. Especially since Siyar has heavy hands and has plenty of KO’s on his CV.
Basically, I feel that someone is going to sleep in this and think it plays out a bit like the Millender/Alves fight.
Selection: Fight does not go distance at 1.80
Millender R1 KO at 7s is also a play at odds. Fight Ends in a knock out at $2.25 appeals too.
Cris “Cyborg” Justino v Amanda “Lioness” Nunes
What a fight this is. From a betting perspective, Cyborg’s odds don’t appeal to me at 1.40. I’m not sure what Nunes’ path to victory is, I’m unsure to if she knocks Cyborg out but I do feel she’s tough enough to go 5 rounds with her.
Selection: Cyborg on Points at 4.5
Small saver on Cyborg R4 12’s and R5 at 15’s.
Jon “Bones” Jones v Alex “The Mauler” Gustafsson
The main event is an interesting one. Two of them have been inactive the last few years for various reasons. Alex looked very good upon his return against Glover Teixeira. Jones looked vintage beating DC. Bones is a heavy favourite at 1.35.
My worry with Bones is do we get motivated Jon Jones that wanted to finish DC or do we get that sluggish one that came back to beat OSP? If its the one that battered Cormier then he can finish Alex but I think Alex is value if he’s not on top of his game. Will Gus bring out the same fire? I hope so and looking at the odds, I’ll have a small play on the Swede.
Selection: Gustafsson money line at 3.25(small)