UFC 236 Betting Preview
UFC returns this weekend with an interesting couple of interim title fights. Outside of the title fights, it might not be the greatest card but let’s try find some value.
Andre Soukhamthath v Montel Jackson
I’m a fan of Soukhamthath here at big dog odds.
I think this is the toughest test of Jackson’s career and I’m not sure he’s as good as hype would have you believe. I know he made light work of Brain Kelleher but Kelleher was his own worst enemy that night.
Jackson was impressive but he didn’t have to beat much. Soukhamthath is coming off a brain freeze loss to Sean O’Malley, who couldn’t walk after breaking his foot, so Andre went in on a single leg. His fight IQ was lacking that night, however, I feel this is a good match for him to redeem himself. I think Soukhamthath is as tough as they come and is over odds here. At the $4.50 available I’m keen to have a small play
Selection: Andre Soukhamthath at $4.50
Belal Muhammad v Curtis Millender
Good to see Curtis back so soon after getting dominated by Dos Santos a few weeks back.
Muhammad seems to have problems with heavy handed fighters. Losses to Neal and Luque were fights that stayed off the ground and I think this one can play out same. I think Millender is slight value at $2.10 and can win the kickboxing battle here. Both have good hands but Curtis kicking game is the better and I think he can inflict some damage here.
Selection: Curtis Millender $2.10
Alan Jouban v Dwight Grant
Initially I was keen on Grant here but after watching some tapes I think this line on Jouban is a little big. Grant has some heavy hands but looks to still be growing in other aspects of the sport. His cardio is another issue. He died off in that Ottow fight and I think Jouban would take advantage of that more than a tired Zak Ottow. Jouban is no stranger to fighting people with heavy hands, he has wins over Mike Perry and Ben Saunders to confirm this. Experience could be the factor here, I’m going to take the veteran in Jouban to get this done, probably by decision.
Selection: Alan Jouban $1.90
Matt Frevola v Jalin Turner
Short and sweet with this one. Turner has the hands to trouble Frevola here for me.
I think at $1.80, he’s a good bet and I’ll also be looking at him via KO.
Selection: Jalin Turner $1.80
Jalin Turner KO
Kelvin Gastelum v Israel Adesanya
I’m a big fan of Adesanya but cannot back him at odds available. I think this title shot might have been rushed a little. We have seen this in the past, hype guys, getting a title push too early. Oezdemir, Ortega and Ngannou all got pushed to top too early and I’m afraid that Adesanya could be the next. It’s not that long ago he was struggling to beat Vettori and all though impressive against Brunson and Tavares, Gastelum will represent a big step up in competition.
Kelvin has proven himself with that big Bisping KO and beating Jacare. I think if he can get in close to Adesanya and hurt him with his boxing. This fight will probably be won in the clinch and wrestling exchanges, I believe Gastelum can shrug Adesanya off and catch him with some good shots. At current odds I’ll take a shot on Gastelum, reluctantly though as I seen so much potential in Adesanya.
Selection: Kelvin Gastelum $2.62
Max Holloway v Dustin Poirier
Wow, what a main event. I’ve been swaying from side to side here. For me it comes down to weather Poirier’s jab can hold Holloway back, I believe it can and he has shown an iron clad chin. These two things give me hope that Poirier can win here. The Jab will be key, if he cannot push Holloway back with it, then Holloway will pick him off as we have seen so many times before. I think Poirier’s BJJ is better too if it hits the floor . Poirier is also the dog here and for me, Max is a little short. I’ll take that $2.80 on Poirier all day.
Selection: Dustin Poirier $2.80