UFC 239 Betting – How 3 fights will finish
Always keen to have a crack at some of the higher odds available in fights.
Usually try to pick 3 or so off the card at decent odds so that if one or two get up, we make a profit.
Going to throw up some I feel have a chance of hitting at UFC 249 and are possible value at the current prices. Let’s hopefully cash all of them!
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone v Anthony “Showtime” Pettis
First, look at this and odds available, I felt that Cerrone was being undervalued. People possibly looking into the Mcgregor trashing and saying the Cerrone is finished. I’m not so sure. McGregor, in the form, is one of the best in the world so no shame in the result. Also, Anthony Pettis is not Conor McGregor.
Cerrone on a three-fight skid but those three are the elite of the 155-pound division. Also, he’s historically struggled against the top guys.
Pettis is on a career skid too but is valuable to UFC as name-value as a former champion. He’s been on a rough road. He got the Tony treatment from Tony and Nate and Diego Ferreira handed him L’s most recently. I know he beat Wonderboy but he was getting his ads whopped before he caught Thompson for mine.
Looking at this straight up I feel Cerrone has enough on the feet to trouble Pettis and I’m not worried about the ground game aspect of Pettis. I think that Cerrone can control Pettis if he tries to bring it to the floor.
The price that stood out to me was Cerrone by TKO at $7, +600, 6/1.
He could catch Pettis with a head kick or hurt him with a big shot. I could see Pettis possibly breaking something as he seems to get hurt a lot in his fights recently. Could easily get hurt and get stopped by the corner. Either way, I’m looking for value and I think some odds available with Cerrone in both his money line and by knock out.
Selection: Donald Cerrone by TKO $7, +600, 6/1
Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell v Charles “Boston Strong” Rosa
This is going to be a fun fight. Look, I like Bryce Mitchell. He’s a country guy, that’s tough as they come. Everyone is excited to see more of him since that twister finish. Plus he’s got that back story of nearly losing his testicle in an accident last year. I ain’t delving into it, google it if you wish.
He’s got a decent grappling game and while his BJJ game is a work in progress he is going in the right direction.
Rosa has the edge in BJJ for me. Training out of American Top Team, I think they will look to capitalise on Rosa advantage on the mat. Mitchell got subbed in TUF by Brad Katona. Rosa is out here making light work of Manny Bermudez.
Mitchell is undefeated in his career officially but I thought that Bobby Moffett did enough to beat him. Both guys nearly subbed one another in that fight and I feel if Rosa is given half the chances that Moffett was given, this fight will be over. Rosa’s losses most recently are to Yair and Shane Burgos. Both of them are the higher calibre of a fighter than Mitchell. He even went out and won a round against Burgos.
In the end, I think that Rosa has the better chance of getting a submission here and that bookies have this priced up wrong.
Again I’m looking for value and I’m keen that value is in Rosa money line and to win by submission at $8.5, +750, 15/2
Selection: Charles Rosa by submission $8.5, +750, 15/2
Ryan “Superman” Spann v “Smilen” Sam Alvey
Every Sam Alvey fight involves him waiting for his opponent to lead and him trying to catch them with a counter strike. Majority of the time it doesn’t work out for him and he either gets finished or loses a decision. Even his last win against Gian Villante was razor close and Gian has the worst gas tank in MMA in my opinion.
Spann, five years younger than Alvey, trains at the striding, Fortis MMA gym.
Since getting a quick submission on DWTNCS, he has been impressive in his UFC career. He’s had good wins over Devin Clark (Sub) and Big Nog.
Bookies have Spann a big favourite and I tend to agree it’s his fight to lose.
GM3 was the last man to submit Sam Alvey and that nearly ten years ago.
I’m not keen to trust Alvey to not get hurt inside 15 minutes so I’m going to side with Spann to win by TKO.
Selection: Ryan Spann TKO $3, +200, 2/1
Cerrone – Rosa – Spann $6, +500, 5/1
Cerrone KO, Rosa Sub, Spann KO $163, +1630, 162/1