UFC on ESPN+ 1 betting preview
The UFC returns for its first event of 2019 and it’s first of the ESPN era. It’s a solid overall card but unfortunate to lose Randy Brown, John Lineker and Ion Cutelaba through injury. I’m keen on a few here so hopefully, we can make some money!
Ariana “The Violence Queen” Lipski v Joanne “JoJo” Calderwood
Ariana Lipski is my best bet of the card. I think this matchup is perfect for her UFC debut and I was hoping the odds makers would have been favourable towards Ariana!
First up, I’m not sold on Calderwood in this one, I’m sceptical of the “Jojo 2.0″ after her most recent win. Giving her credit for getting the submission but she was arguably losing that round from the bottom before she got a last minute triangle. The level of her opponent has to be taken into account too. I’m not so sure she will enjoy success on the ground against BJJ black belt Ariana. Cynthia Calvillo had Jojo on the floor for parts of that fight and clipped her with some good shots. In my opinion, Lipski is a lot better striker than Calvillo and I think if she lands the shots that Calvillo was allowed, it’s not going to end well for Calderwood.
Lipski is riding a nine-fight win streak, which includes 7 finishes. A BJJ Black belt with excellent hands, I think she beats Calderwood in this one.
I’m keen she can get a finish here.
Ariana Lipski to win $1.50
Ariana Lipski inside the Distance $2.87
Greg Hardy v Allen “Pretty Boy” Crowder
Not much thought needed for this one in my opinion.
Crowder could well be an easier fight for Hardy’s debut. I think the UFC booked this fight hoping Hardy goes in and finishes him early. Bookies are not offering us much as Hardy odds are rock bottom, as is his odds for a knockout and a knockout in round one.
One price that did appeal to me was Hardy to win via round two knock out at $9. Crowder held off for a round before Curtis Blaydes slept him a few years back, it may be worth a small punt that he sees out a round here against Hardy.
Greg Hardy Round 2 KO 9$ (Small Bet)
Henry Cejudo v TJ Dillashaw
The main event of the evening is an interesting fight. I’ve been over and back a few times on this one.
My original thoughts on this were that Dillashaw would have too much for Cejudo especially in the striking department. Everyone can cite Cejudo beating DJ but that fight has been debated amongst many of fans, media and fighters. Many scored that fight for DJ. The weight cut is another problem for both men. Dillashaw has never fought at flyweight before so it is unsure of how it will affect his performance. Henry is looking good ahead of this bout but we all know from past that he can struggle with making 125.
The improvements in Cejudo game have been clear to see since his first loss to DJ but I’m unsure if its progress enough to take out Dillashaw. I think he can be liable for getting struck early and that could be a problem against an opponent like Dillashaw.
Dillashaw’s coach spoke on Joe Rogan’s podcast recently and said he had no concerns over him making 125. This is good enough for me to go on as that is my main worry.
TJ Dillashaw to win $1.50
TJ Dillashaw Round 1 $7.50
TJ wins by KO $3
A possible treble I have for the three fights is looking good for a bet too. Lipski – Hardy – Dillashaw at $ 2.57.